MOSCOW — Russian officials have unveiled a new 10-year defense plan that includes a dedicated section on artificial intelligence, signaling Moscow’s focus on fielding autonomous weapons.
The move comes as Russia’s full-scale invasion of neighbor Ukraine has triggered an AI arms race on the battlefields there, especially in aerial and land drones, that analysts believe will shape future conflicts.
Elements of artificial intelligence have long been used in the Russian military industry, which is tightly controlled by the government. For example, there is a cluster of ground robot makers for the Marker, Platforma-M, Soratnik, Uran-9 vehicles that have supplied their wares for the war against Ukraine.
The country’s missile complex, too, has a history in infusing varying degrees of autonomy into targeting algorithms, perhaps most famously under the Perimeter program, a Soviet-era algorithm sequence for orchestrating a retaliatory nuclear strike.
Now, Russian officials are outfitting equipment returning for repairs from the Ukraine war with new technology, like remotely controlled fire modules, automatic target tracking, and propulsion systems, Vasily Elistratov, who oversees AI technology at the Russian Ministry of Defence, said at the Forum Army-2024 held here this month.
According to Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Chernyshenko, the volume of the Russian AI market in 2023 reached almost 650 billion rubles, or $7.3 billion, an amount dwarfed by spending in the collective West on various outgrowths of the technology.
The dedicated AI budget line, for which officials have yet to give a number, is meant to help facilitate the transition into defense applications. A specialized department for the development of artificial intelligence is now in place in the Russian Defense Ministry, Chernyshenko announced.
For example, an AI control capability is now in development for the S-500 air-defense system, with threat assessment and damage prediction of a possible ballistic missile attack.
“The Russian defense industry will develop artificial intelligence and automated systems for products with high speed, where errors are not so critical,” said Sergei Smyslov, an independent defense industry expert based in Russia. With that in mind, potential applications include missile defense systems, artillery shells and aerial drones, he added.
Another area of AI use will be aviation and artillery to increase their efficiency, said Pavel Luzin, senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis. Autonomous attack drones will likely remain commodities for a long time. As for autonomous ground robots, most of them will be used to supply troops on the battlefield and evacuate the wounded. AI will also be used in computer modeling of military campaigns during their preparation, Luzin said.
Russia is also going to use AI to improve the production processes of military products, with automatic quality checks that will trigger a manufacturing halt if they fail.
The Ministry of Defense by itself is unlikely to be able to effectively develop weapons with AI. There is a personnel problem in the scientific institutes of the Ministry of Defense, as the best graduates tend to go elsewhere.
Government officials have been building a development track in the government-owned industries instead, for example through Rostec companies and the Era Foundation, according to Luzin.
In early 2022, Rostec State Corporation’s Roselektronika Holding created the Artificial Intelligence Technologies Research Laboratory, which is engaged in research on the use of AI in radio communication systems, development in the field of virtual-reality technologies, big data technologies, and machine learning of deep neural networks.
The Era Foundation seeks to identify new technology among private companies and universities. In August, the foundation selected eight projects – including an unmanned boat, a remote-controlled turret, various drones, and a drone-detection system – that will receive funding to enter mass production.
