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Russia has counterattacked in Kursk, claiming to have recaptured 10 settlements.
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The Institute for the Study of War said Russian forces may be planning to try to split Ukrainian-held areas.
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The ISW said “the situation remains fluid” and says a larger counteroffensive could be in the works.
Russia claims to have recaptured 10 settlements in Kursk, in a move that suggests a counteroffensive is in the works, according to multiple reports.
Major General Apty Alaudinov, the commander of the Akhmat special forces unit that has been fighting in Kursk, said that Russian forces had repelled four Ukranian attacks and had destroyed clusters of soldiers and hardware in more than a dozen locations in the region, Russian state-controlled news outlet TASS reported on Wednesday.
Alaudinov added that Ukrainian forces, suffering heavy losses, were starting to realize that the move into Kursk will not be easy, the outlet reported.
Influential pro-Russian military bloggers Two Majors and Rybar also said a major counteroffensive was underway, Reuters reported.
Business Insider was unable to independently verify the claims, which Ukraine has not commented on.
Ukraine’s surprise attack on the western Russian region is now in its fifth week, with Ukraine claiming to have grabbed 500 square miles of territory.
But independent analysts at the Institute for the Study of War assessed that, as of Wednesday, Russian forces had retaken positions east of the settlement of Zhuravli and had advanced to positions north and northeast of the village of Snagost, on the western edge of the salient.
They were unable to confirm multiple other claims from pro-Russian military bloggers, and that Russia had secured Snagost itself.
“The size, scale, and potential prospects of the September 11 Russian counterattacks in Kursk Oblast are unclear and the situation remains fluid,” they wrote.
Russia is also deploying some of its more battle-hardened units, they said — a contrast to the young conscripts Ukrainian forces reportedly encountered when they first broke through.
The ISW said that Russian forces may be planning on temporarily trying to divide the area Ukraine holds in Kursk ahead of a bigger push.
“Russian forces may intend to cut the Ukrainian salient and advance to the international border southeast of Snagost,” it said, in order to “complicate existing Ukrainian logistics routes and fire support positions closer to the international border before beginning a larger-scale counteroffensive operation.”
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