Botswana’s governing party – in power for almost six decades – is trying to pull off a trick in Wednesday’s general election by using a phrase normally associated with long-suffering opposition groups.
In its manifesto, the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) is calling for “change”.
“Let’s change together and build prosperity for all,” President Mokgweetsi Masisi – in charge of the country since 2018 – writes in the introduction.
It is an acknowledgement that things need to be done differently – the opposition argues that the president’s party is not in a position to do that.
Though analysts say the outcome of the election is hard to predict this time, the BDP has won handsome parliamentary majorities at the 11 elections since independence in 1966.
It subsequently secured the presidency every time as MPs elect the head of state.
The BDP has been credited with overseeing a peaceful and dramatic transformation of a poor country, with only a few kilometres of tarred roads at independence, into a place where average living standards are among the highest on the continent.
Underpinning this transformation has been Botswana’s huge diamond reserves – measured by their value, the country is the world’s largest producer of the gemstone.
And yet all is not well.
Botswana is facing big economic challenges – hence Masisi’s talk of change.
More than one in four of the working population is unemployed, with an even higher proportion among younger people, according to the World Bank.
Politics professor at the University of Botswana Zibani Maundeni described it as a “jobless economy”.
“We are producing graduates every year and the economy is not producing enough jobs for them,” he told the BBC’s Africa Daily podcast.
In addition, Botswana’s wealth is not evenly spread around among its 2.3 million people.
By a measure known as the Gini index, researchers say it is one of the most unequal countries in the world.
And the diamond industry appears to be under pressure globally as demand has been falling.
But Masisi and his party continue to project confidence.
At a campaign rally in an opposition stronghold in central Botswana, the president arrived in style in an electric vehicle assembled in the country.
Getting out, the 63-year-old former teacher danced towards the stage greeting supporters in red-and-white party colours.
Laughter rang through the crowd as Masisi’s humour and charisma electrified the audience.
The area – home to the previous President, Ian Khama – elected three opposition MPs in 2019.
This was after Khama defected from the BDP to help form the Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF), saying he regretted picking Masisi as his successor.
The dramatic fall-out between the two men led to Khama leaving the country, accusing the government of trying to poison him.
Khama was then charged with money laundering, among other crimes, all of which he denies.
It also ended the political dominance of his family – his father, Sir Seretse Khama, was the country’s first president and served for 14 years from 1966.
“I am sorry, please come back home and also call others over,” Masisi told the rally pleading to voters to return to the BDP.
Hair-salon owner, Thandiwe Potso, 32, seemed convinced.
“Masisi truly understands our challenges and brought better programmes to fund our businesses,” she told the BBC, her eyes shining with conviction.
Kabelo Selemo, 45, agreed.
“His policies have helped us grow as you can see we no longer import vegetables. I believe in his vision for our future,” said the small-business owner.
But according to an opinion poll, many others may not be so easy to convince.
Respected non-partisan polling organisation Afrobarometer released a damming report earlier this year.
It said that despite the country ranking highly in good governance on the continent, people in Botswana had a negative view of the government believing there were high levels of corruption.
“Strong majorities express little or no trust in the incumbent and disapprove of the way he has performed his job,” it said.
BDP spokesperson Kagelelo Banks Kentse questioned the credibility of the poll.
He argued that Afrobarometer had in previous elections underestimated support for the BDP and thought it would be no different this time. Though the party is not taking anything for granted.
“I would be very wrong to say that we are over-confident,” Kentse told the BBC.
“I always hear people saying: ‘This is the toughest election we’ve come across’, but we say that in every election year. You never win before the actual vote.”
He admitted that the unemployment rate did not paint a good picture, but argued that every nation on the continent was experiencing similar problems, adding that his party was pledging to create 300,000 more jobs.
Kentse also touted the toughly negotiated deal that Masisi struck with diamond firm De Beers last year for Botswana to benefit more from its natural resources.
Initially the state will get a 30% share of the rough diamonds mined in the country, an increase on the 25% it got previously, rising to 50% within 10 years.
But Dumelang Saleshando, leader of one of the largest opposition parties, argued that the government has just copied others’ ideas.
He said his Botswana Congress Party (BCP) had first set a jobs target, which the BDP had previously rejected saying it was better to leave things to the free market.
One of the slogans Saleshando is deploying is: “Save Botswana”.
“I think people have seen the BDP for what it is,” he told the BBC.
“It certainly cannot argue that it is an agent of change. In the past it has always tried to say it’s about keeping stability – more of the same – and out of panic they are trying to preach what they don’t believe in.”
Supporters of another opposition party – the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), which got the second largest share of the vote in 2019, came out in their numbers in the north of the capital, Gaborone.
Dressed in blue-and-white T-shirts and sun hats, they cheered leader Duma Boko.
Unlike Masisi, Boko generally remained serious, in order to emphasise how much the people were suffering under the BDP.
He alleged that there were attempts to rig the poll.
“I urge you all to be vigilant and after voting out the BDP you remain at the polling station to guard your vote,” he said.
Thapelo Dimpe, a 45-year-old former teacher, has no doubts about why he wants to see the president’s party defeated.
“Masisi has let us down on education reform. The UDC plans to invest in our schools and empower our youth with the education they deserve,” he said.
Although the government has a host of problems that could dent its support, opposition divisions could enable the BDP to stay in power.
Every MP is elected on a first-past-the-post basis, meaning that to win a seat, the BDP only needs the largest number of votes in a constituency rather than more than 50%.
In a seat where the UDC, BCP or BPF – or a number of other parties – are running, it could mean that the opposition vote is split, allowing the BDP to get in.
“These parties seem to have factionalism within themselves, they keep taking internal issues to the media – they are not really united,” political analyst Lesole Machacha told the BBC.
But he also pointed out that the BDP had its own problems.
“The ruling party is not 100% intact – it is also having issues. In some constituencies BDP politicians who were not happy with the primary process are running as independent candidates, which could divide that vote,” Mr Machacha said.
All this makes for a closely fought and unpredictable election, he added.
For one of Africa’s most successful political parties, the question now is whether enough people are convinced that it can oversee the change that the country needs.
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