Wael’s view
On paper, achieving Saudi Arabia’s unemployment target falls under the remit of the Minister of Human Resources and Social Development. But the real burden of meeting the newly revised 5% target by 2030 falls on two powerful figures: Mohammed Al-Jadaan, the Minister of Finance, and Yasser Al-Rumayyan, Governor of the Public Investment Fund (PIF).
Who owns the target is not a mere rhetorical shift — it reflects the structure of the Saudi Vision 2030 economic transformation plan. The state is emerging as the kingdom’s largest employer, establishing dozens of companies and hundreds of thousands of jobs. PIF alone is injecting hundreds of billions of riyals annually into the domestic economy, contributing to the creation of over 500,000 jobs. Together, these forces have been instrumental in driving down unemployment, but they also reveal deep systemic challenges.
Since Vision 2030 launched, public sector salaries have soared. In 2016, the state wage bill was 440 billion riyals ($117 billion), and by 2023 wages had climbed to 504 billion riyals, excluding the PIF payroll. If PIF is included, the true scale becomes clearer — and more troubling.
Many of the new jobs are in non-profits or government-owned startups, which benefits employment statistics, but the firms lack a clear path to revenue and profitability within a decade. The burden of sustaining these jobs falls squarely on the Ministry of Finance and PIF, creating a long-term liability for the state.
The rapid expansion of government employment has created a significant wage gap between the public and private sectors. Government jobs, with higher salaries and better benefits, have made it harder for private employers to attract top talent. This distortion threatens the competitiveness of the private sector — which must be fostered to achieve the economic diversification goals under Vision 2030.
As the best talent gravitates toward government roles, the private sector risks being sidelined. Without a competitive labor market, it will struggle to drive innovation, productivity, and sustainable job creation.
The government’s efforts to lower unemployment have produced results, but success cannot hinge on short-term fixes. Long-term sustainability requires a paradigm shift in employment strategy.
First, the government must avoid overstaffing roles without clear revenue potential, and the new entities should achieve financial sustainability within five years. Second, the wage gap between the public and private sector must be tightened. And finally, PIF investments and other initiatives should have to translate into private sector growth.
Reducing unemployment to 5% by 2030 is an ambitious and commendable goal, but its success depends on more than hitting numerical targets. Saudi Arabia’s true transformation will be measured not by how many jobs are created, but by how many are still viable a decade from now.
Al-Jadaan and Al-Rumayyan may not officially hold the unemployment portfolio, but their decisions will shape whether this target is met — and whether it lasts. For Saudi Arabia, this isn’t just about reducing unemployment. It’s about building an economy that stands on solid, sustainable ground.
