MIAMI — ‘X’ now marks not just one spot, but two spots again in the Atlantic basin tropics as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has added a new potential tropical disturbance to monitor for development just emerging off the west coast of Africa on Thursday evening.
That system currently is just a disorganized area of thunderstorms, but atmospheric conditions do indicate potential for slow development toward the middle of next week as it drifts over the eastern Tropical Atlantic, the NHC says. The agency pegs the current development odds at 20% over the next seven days.
Meanwhile, odds for development have increased again for a tropical wave that has already made the journey about halfway across the Atlantic and has been under the watchful eyes of the NHC for a few days.
Thunderstorms remain disorganized as of Thursday evening, but the NHC says storms have become more concentrated near its axis. And environmental conditions look better for gradual development of the system to the point a tropical depression could form by early next week while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph, approaching the Lesser Antilles.
The NHC currently gives the disturbance a very low chance of development through the next two days, but now has bumped up to a 50% chance of development within the next week.
“The disturbance is moving more slowly than many systems we track through the tropical Atlantic, so it’s going to take through the weekend before it approaches the Caribbean,” said FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross. “Some computer forecasts still show the system moving through the islands as a gusty moisture surge, but some now show it developing into an organized tropical depression or tropical storm.”
Still, until the system gains a more cohesive center, computer forecast projections will face challenges in getting a consistent forecast.
“Everyone in the eastern and northeastern Caribbean should prepare to stay informed over the weekend,” Norcross said. “If the system can organize to a reasonable degree over the next several days, the atmosphere pattern near the islands and through the Caribbean appears conducive to development. A significant tropical storm or hurricane could develop.”
Original article source: Odds increase for development of tropical storm in Caribbean while new disturbance tracked in Atlantic
